What’s going on with the 928 market?
09-13-2022, 10:32 PM
#1
Instructor
Thread Starter
What’s going on with the 928 market?
Check this out! Pretty good news 
https://mart.pca.org/news/whats-going-on-with-the-porsche-928-market
https://mart.pca.org/news/whats-going-on-with-the-porsche-928-market
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09-16-2022, 06:45 AM
Rennlist Member
I don't want to rain on the parade, but I think there are a lot of us here that are old enough to have experienced a few less than favorable economies. Personally, I'm thinking we're still a couple years away from an upswing, and I'm expecting a couple more rate hikes.....as well as a lot of layoffs, small business closures, home foreclosures, etc. (not to be a downer, but hear me out). When that happens, luxury items have historically tanked. After the early 80's oil bust I bought a few thoroughbred racehorses and breeding stock for probably about 1/10th of the price they would have brought. Collector cars had been going through the roof, and prices cratered. Being at the lower end of the price spectrum, I doubt that the 928 will lose all of the appreciation that we've seen in the past 10 years, but I am personally going to sit tight...expecting a buyers market in about 24 months.
The Federal Reserve stopped buying MBS's (Mortgage Backed Securities) on September 15th, 2022. This is significant because it marks the beginning of real monetary tightening.
The Fed has three real tools to manage the economy:
1. It's bully pulpit.
2. Interest rates.
3. Liquidity.
My goofy A$$ explanation of those tools:
1. The "Bully pulpit" is the language the Fed uses in its policy statements, Essentially - talking the market up or down.
2. Interest rates work as incentives to stimulate or reduce investment in leveraged assets.
3. Liquidity is the big boy of the bunch, it expands or shrinks the money supply.
The Fed is using all three tools to hit the brakes as of September 15th, 2022!
1. They are talking the market down.
2. They are tightening interest rates.
3. They are tightening the money supply!
It does not take a weatherman to see which way the wind blows!
The Federal Reserve has only two mandates:
1. Financial stability
2. Full employment
The Federal Reserve sucks at its job! Instead of financial stability, it constantly blows huge bubbles and then it explodes them in a cycle of boom/bust that is outrageous.
From 1998 it massively expanded money supply and the stock market bubble burst in late 2000. But it was only a "Equities bubble" that means only the stock market cratered, those are typically 2 years to recovery. It did recover in two years.
If the stock market and housing markets collapse at the same time, it is a seven year cycle. 4 years from top to bottom, then 3 years back up to par value. From 2003-2007 The Fed blew another liquidity bubble and the stock & housing market rocketed higher. Then they dramatically tightened liquidity and crashed housing in the epic 2007 - 2013 housing collapse. I've got bsd news here... The Covid equities & housing bubble is twice as big as the housing bubble of 2004 - 2007 and the Federal Reserve is bursting the bubble right now in what will be an epic rout of both equities and the housing market. It is a seven year cycle that topped IMO in September-December of 2021. The bottom will be in 2024-2025. Housing values will not recover to todays values until 2028.
A growing economy is absolutely dependent on money supply growing. As of September 15th, it is shrinking after a huge and long term firehose of liquidity. This will absolutely affect the collector car and toy markets because toys are the first thing to go when the market crunches. My prediction is that the bottom will fall out from the lower and middle end of the market, while the top cars will drop 25% then flatten out before the next round of liquidity (bubble) gets blown in 2028. (This prediction is predicated on the Fed not changing its liquidity policy.)
What I am saying is that I expect my cars to go down in value, even though they are what I consider great examples. Fortunately, I really like them and I can ride out the storm in anticipation of resumed appreciation in 2028!.
But mark my words, "There will be a storm" and in 24 - 48 months, there will be "Blood in the streets" as far as "investing" in cars goes.
History does not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme!
P.S. I hope no one reads this because I'll get flamed, and it is not what most of us want to hear. We all prefer to think our cars will go up forever and in a consistent manner...
P.S.S. Watch for a headline that roughly reads: "xxxxx to be named hedge fund blows up as interest rate derivative market collapses"...
09-14-2022, 03:39 AM
#3
Rennlist Member
I chuckle at the myths out there!
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09-14-2022, 09:06 AM
#4
Rennlist Member
I think Rob is accurate: There will always be a few really valuable cars (to the right people), and the really nice cars in desirable years are in the $50k range. But that isn't going push my '82 into the $20k range any time soon. I still constantly see complete and relatively nice cars for under $10k. There's one in the 'for sale' thread right now on CL outside Atlanta: Very complete, with restoration parts, $8k. A good cleaning and some love and it's probably a $20k car.
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09-14-2022, 07:39 PM
#5
Something that gets me with the market is when I compare it to other markets for inferior cars. The Mercedes R107 market for one example. Those cars fetch a lot of money here. No idea why.
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09-15-2022, 12:40 AM
#7
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I think Rob is accurate: There will always be a few really valuable cars (to the right people), and the really nice cars in desirable years are in the $50k range. But that isn't going push my '82 into the $20k range any time soon. I still constantly see complete and relatively nice cars for under $10k. There's one in the 'for sale' thread right now on CL outside Atlanta: Very complete, with restoration parts, $8k. A good cleaning and some love and it's probably a $20k car.
I don't think that many of the people who complain about the cost of maintaining a 928 have ever owned a 911.
__________________
greg brown
714 879 9072
GregBBRD@aol.com
Semi-retired, as of Feb 1, 2023.
The days of free technical advice are over.
Free consultations will no longer be available.
Will still be in the shop, isolated and exclusively working on project cars, developmental work and products, engines and transmissions.
Have fun with your 928's people!
greg brown
714 879 9072
GregBBRD@aol.com
Semi-retired, as of Feb 1, 2023.
The days of free technical advice are over.
Free consultations will no longer be available.
Will still be in the shop, isolated and exclusively working on project cars, developmental work and products, engines and transmissions.
Have fun with your 928's people!
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09-15-2022, 08:39 AM
#8
Three Wheelin'
I think Rob is accurate: There will always be a few really valuable cars (to the right people), and the really nice cars in desirable years are in the $50k range. But that isn't going push my '82 into the $20k range any time soon. I still constantly see complete and relatively nice cars for under $10k. There's one in the 'for sale' thread right now on CL outside Atlanta: Very complete, with restoration parts, $8k. A good cleaning and some love and it's probably a $20k car.
But it is a fantastic car to work on and drive ... only to know if you give it a chance of course.
09-15-2022, 10:46 AM
#9
Drifting
It's simple, look around!........ MOST people are complete idiots which explains our world not just 928's. Most people have never heard of a 928. Most people don't have a clue about beauty, again look around, and most car people have never experienced a well maintained 928. If they got a ride in a well maintained decent HP 928 version with a competent driver their world would open up.
09-15-2022, 11:02 AM
#10
It's simple, look around!........ MOST people are complete idiots which explains our world not just 928's. Most people have never heard of a 928. Most people don't have a clue about beauty, again look around, and most car people have never experienced a well maintained 928. If they got a ride in a well maintained decent HP 928 version with a competent driver their world would open up.
I think my favourite remark was a YouTube comment from someone who said the 928 had no road feel. That's hilarious to me because even when running on stock wheels, suspension and power steering the ride can make you clench your teeth if you are unfortunate enough to find a pothole or very rough surface.
At the end of the day we just have to count ourselves lucky that we own or have owned and driven a 928 that has had no corners cut and no neglect.
Last edited by 8cyl; 09-15-2022 at 11:11 AM.
09-15-2022, 11:33 AM
#11
Rennlist Member
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09-15-2022, 12:03 PM
#12
Drifting
That has been my experience too.
Most people don't like how it looks, and you can't blame them - who wants to drive a car that one perceives as unattractive, regardless of how nice it drives?
It's no different than when the Panamera first came out - a great driving car, but just about everyone thought it was butt ugly.
09-15-2022, 03:12 PM
#13
That has been my experience too.
LOL, that's the problem - we are the minority...
Most people don't like how it looks, and you can't blame them - who wants to drive a car that one perceives as unattractive, regardless of how nice it drives?
It's no different than when the Panamera first came out - a great driving car, but just about everyone thought it's butt was ugly.
LOL, that's the problem - we are the minority...
Most people don't like how it looks, and you can't blame them - who wants to drive a car that one perceives as unattractive, regardless of how nice it drives?
It's no different than when the Panamera first came out - a great driving car, but just about everyone thought it's butt was ugly.
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SwayBar (09-16-2022)
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09-15-2022, 05:23 PM
#15
Rennlist Member
I love 928s, but I think there are things not to like if you are expecting a certain level of comfort and a feeling of being in a performance car:
-The stock steering to too heavy on most cars. Uncomfortable for many.
-The cabin has a lot of horizontal glass, the heat comes back from the motor, and they have only moderately effective AC. Too damn hot in many climates.
-Many of the automatic cars feel slow and heavy coming away from a stop, just because the way the auto shifts.
-Less head room than most cars.
-The doors are so long that it can be hard to find a parking space wide enough to open the door enough to make getting in and out comfortable.
-Everything but a GTS is pretty loud inside.
That's probably enough for most drivers, who have little appetite for discomfort of any sort. Some of them can be addressed. None of them have much impact on collectors, I suppose.
-The stock steering to too heavy on most cars. Uncomfortable for many.
-The cabin has a lot of horizontal glass, the heat comes back from the motor, and they have only moderately effective AC. Too damn hot in many climates.
-Many of the automatic cars feel slow and heavy coming away from a stop, just because the way the auto shifts.
-Less head room than most cars.
-The doors are so long that it can be hard to find a parking space wide enough to open the door enough to make getting in and out comfortable.
-Everything but a GTS is pretty loud inside.
That's probably enough for most drivers, who have little appetite for discomfort of any sort. Some of them can be addressed. None of them have much impact on collectors, I suppose.