964Lovac

It is interesting indeed, I think it makes sense, especially as folks who lusted after cars of this vintage (and many others) are finding themselves in places to purchase these cars. Add rarity and you have a perfect mix of demand and low supply.

Personally, my car is an investment in my happiness

christallon

It's supply and demand. Until they balance 1 for 1, the prices will keep climbing. More people getting into P cars worldwide due to build quality and thrill of ownership. Also, more cash available. Limited numbers of C2's were made, and I'll venture a guess there are way more buyers out there than cars available, especially good ones. Baby Boomers are retiring with $ and want toys to play with that represent some value. These cars fit that to a tee. Now factor in the more rare cars like RS, Speedster, RSA, US Cup, Euro Cup and you have collectibility. These cars are still a bargain in the US.

canuck964

Sorry if I offend my fellow 964'ers.

I don't buy into the hype that a run of the mill 964 like mine is collectible.

I think that we have certainly hit the bottom of the depreciation curve but IMHO the cost of upkeep will surpass any appreciation in values.

Certainly the rare RS, Speedster, RSA or Turbos may be collectible.

The run of the mill 964s like mine will take another 15 to 20 years before the ones in good shape see some real appreciation. There are just too many of them around.

I know that there doesn't seem to be a lot selling but that doesn't mean there are not a lot of them around.

I also think it would be a shame if my 964 did become a collectible .... they are made to be driven and if they become too much of a collector's car then the majority of them would be restored and left as garage queens.

Sorry I'll duck and take cover now.

hamah

I tend to agree. I figure if they go up with inflation, and possibly maintenance costs, I'll be doing well. In other words if I sold in 10 years (which I hope not to) I'd get my money out. But I'll bet that doesn't happen for a run of the mill car like mine, even if it is in great shape.

creaturecat

the 964 has already appreciated, what? 15-20% in ONE year
past performance is the indicator of future performance.
the good ones will probably end up in Europe, where they are up to speed on the merits of the 964.

canuck964

If we use $30,000 as the price of an above average 964.

I would estimate that I spend at least an average of $2,000 per year on maintenance.

So to keep up with my maintenance costs the annual growth on the 964 would need to be this:

Base year $30,000
Y2 $32,000 or 6.7% increase
Y3 $34,000 or 6.25% increase
Y4 $36,000 or 5.9% increase
Y5 $38,000 or 5.5% increase

If we accept a 15-20% growth then on $30,000 is $4,500 to $6,000.

Using a 15% increase it looks like this:

Base year $30,000
Y2 $34,500
Y3 $39,675
Y4 $45,626
Y5 $52,470

IMHO this growth is not attainable.

christallon

^^^

The same could have been said for the longhoods a few short years ago, now look at them. The aircooled cars will continue to climb

creaturecat

Well. Maintenance is a variable cost, We are talking about appreciation in value.
A nice C2 worth 52000 in 5 years?
I think so. Perhaps more.

BLACK-BETTY

Ok I'll bite.

The modifications to my car out way the sale price - were I to sell. However they have increased it's value along side market value.

Bottom line - I'm happy to have a car that I can modify, knowing that it will increase or let alone maintain it's value.

canuck964

I do know that maintenance costs are a variable cost.

I was merely pointing out that it is reasonable to assume that the appreciation % in value necessary to keep up with my average estimated annual maintenance costs is reasonable to achieve but that an annual growth of 15% compounded is not reasonable to maintain.

I did not account for inflation in my average estimated maintenance cost but even with inflation a minimum of a 6% appreciation would take care of that.

I would be thrilled if my 964 is worth more than $52k in 5 years.

I just don't think the demographics line up to this level of appreciation. The bulk of the baby boomers were born before 1950. That means they will be 70 years old in 5 years. The majority will not be looking to buy collectible cars at that age.

The affect of the boomers is something that I am constantly studying as it has had a huge impact on everything in our current lives and in estimating what will happen in the future.

From the shortage in classrooms for primary and high schools, over crowding in Universities, massive growth in our GDP in the last 20 years, growth in the stock markets and property values, increase demand in vacations and vacation homes and in the future the massive demand on our medical system and for home and elder care, the baby boomers have left a huge mark as they age.

I just don't know if the generation that is in the shadow of the boomers will be able to maintain the high standard of living that the boomers have created to enable the massive growth in prices of collectible art and cars.

What will happen when the boomers begin to sell their vacation homes, collectible art and cars etc in order to pay for their medical care as they get older. Doesn't the theory of supply and demand mean those items will begin to drop in price.

I don't know the answer.

FeralComprehension

Hell, when it comes down to it so long as I'm not taking a total bath I'll be happy. My last car was an 06 Legacy GT, which I bought in pristine condition for $14k with 67k miles. Before I got to 70k miles the original turbo checked out and I spent 20 hours and $1000 fixing that.

Within another 1000 miles it spun a rod bearing, destroying the motor and wasting the bearings in my new turbo. Fixing that mess was another ~$4k, and suddenly I had $19k into a car that I thorougly detested and was worth about $11k.

I bought my C4 for $15.5k, and have put mebbe $5k into it (clearing up the deferred maintenance, new suspension). It's worth maybe $18k now. People laugh when I say it, but the C4 is a much more economical choice than the LGT.

D.C.

Thanks for posting that. I am going to show that to my wife!

creaturecat

Well. You may not know the answer.
You certainly have given it some thought.

911Jetta

Exactly!

Great comments so far. Who knows what my car is worth... I don't plan to sell it, so it will be fun to watch it appreciate in the future. Even if by only a small amount.

The things that I do know:
- Since I've kept my (modification) expenditure in-check, performing mostly all needed routine maintenance, I've actually spent very little on my car. I'm driving my dream car, while looking really smart to my wife.

- Since the car has mostly stopped depreciating, it's still got to be worth close to what I paid for it... 7 years ago. I can't say that about any other daily driver I've owned. Not even close.

- My car has been parked by cars costing many times more, but it never feels like it shouldn't be invited the the party.

- I've definitely gotten my $20,000 worth of thrills and adventures with this car.

klr10

Been thinking about this thread for a while. I wouldn't be tempted at this point, but as the newer cars slowly depreciate there will come a point where it will be possible to swap a 964 for a fairly decent 997. I had a look at 997 prices in the UK and I wouldn't be surprised if you could do it now at the lower end of the 997 and higher end of the 964 market. Obviously not a good long term investment, but for someone looking to get into the newer cars it seems an interesting opportunity.