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Asked at another thread but I am trying to answer here so we can concentrate on the issue:
Originally Posted by CAlexio
How Should this vw "whistleblower".. (As Naive or painfully honest as he may be) be treated? Is he a traitor or a hero?
We really don't know enough fact to know whether he was indeed a whistleblower or just an incompetent executive representing an
equally inept corporate mentality which might have existed at Volkswagen of America as recently as August & September of 2015.
Let me remind everyone what was reported about it on the New York Times:
'Directors Say Volkswagen Delayed Informing Them of Trickery' Article from the NYT dated Oct 23rd:
"At least three members of Volkswagen’s board said they were left in the dark about the company’s emissions cheating for two weeks after top executives admitted the deception to American environmental officials...If Mr. Winterkorn did not know about the communication with the American regulators, he was unaware of a fundamental threat to the company. If he was aware, he withheld significant information from members of his 20-member supervisory board...It was a 'grave mistake' for Volkswagen executives to withhold information as long as they did, Mr. Weil said on Friday in a statement. He noted that American regulators had raised red flags about Volkswagen emissions in 2014. 'Talks took place for a full year before Volkswagen admitted the deception,' Mr. Weil said. 'This confession should clearly have occurred much earlier'...Some outsiders expressed surprise that Mr. Winterkorn, known for his attention to detail, would have been unaware that E.P.A. officials had been asking for more than a year why Volkswagen diesel cars had far lower emissions in laboratory tests than on the road. 'I find it very improbable,' said Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, a professor at the University of Duisburg-Essen who follows Volkswagen closely. 'He was always the one who wanted to know everything'.
Volkswagen initially contested findings by independent researchers and the E.P.A. in 2014 that showed big discrepancies between the pollutants that its cars generated on the road compared to lab tests. Then, on Aug. 21, 2015, at a conference in Pacific Grove, Calif., organized by the University of California, Davis, a Volkswagen official informally mentioned to a senior E.P.A. official that the company had been deceiving regulators. The revelation surprised the official, Christopher Grundler, who runs the agency’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality. Standing next to him at the time was a regulator with the California Air Resources Board, according to an E.P.A. official who confirmed the events, earlier reported by Reuters.
In a Sept. 3 conference call with officials from the E.P.A. and the state of California, company executives detailed how Volkswagen vehicles were programmed to trick emissions-testing equipment. An E.P.A. spokeswoman declined to identify the Volkswagen officials who have been in talks with the agency."
The conference call on Sept 3rd in which 'company executives (plural) detailed the wrong doing of the company is an acknowledged
'fact' by Volkswagen. You would presume that by that time, two weeks after one sole VW official 'spilled the beans' to the EPA & CARB
on Aug. 21st, Volkswagen's Sept 3rd. talks with the US regulators were being guided by corporate counsel. But that last part is only
speculation on my part. Here is what we do know from the testimony of Volkwagen US CEO Michael Horn before a US Congressional
House Committee on Energy & Commerce on Oct 8th:
"On behalf of our company, and my colleagues in Germany, I would like to offer a sincere apology for Volkswagen’s use of a software program that served to defeat the regular emissions testing regime. In the spring of 2014 when the West Virginia University study was published, I was told that there was a possible emissions non-compliance that could be remedied. I was informed that EPA regulations included various penalties for non-compliance with the emissions standards and that the agencies can conduct engineering tests which could include “defeat device” testing or analysis. I was also informed that the company engineers would work with the agencies to resolve the issue. Later in 2014, I was informed that the technical teams had a specific plan for remedies to bring the vehicles into compliance and that they were engaged with the agencies about the process.
On September 3, 2015, Volkswagen AG disclosed at a meeting with the California Air Resources Board (“CARB”) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) that emissions software in four cylinder diesel vehicles from model years 2009-2015 contained a “defeat device” in the form of hidden software that could recognize whether a vehicle was being operated in a test laboratory or on the road.
The software made those emit higher levels of nitrogen oxides when the vehicles were driven in actual road use than during laboratory testing. In Volkswagen’s recent ongoing discussions with the regulators, we described to the EPA and CARB that our emissions control strategy also included a software feature that should be disclosed to and approved by them as an auxiliary emissions control device (“AECD”) in connection with the certification process. As a result, we have withdrawn the application for certification of our model year 2016 vehicles. We are working with the agencies to continue the certification process. These events are deeply troubling. I did not think that something like this was possible at the Volkswagen Group. We have broken the trust of our customers, dealerships, and employees, as well as the public and regulators. Let me be clear, we at Volkswagen take full responsibility for our actions and we are working with all relevant authorities in a cooperative way. I am here to offer the commitment of Volkswagen AG to work with this Committee to understand what happened, and how we will move forward. EPA, CARB, the U.S. Department of Justice, State Attorneys General, as well as other authorities, are fulfilling their duties to investigate this matter. We are determined to make things right. This includes accepting the consequences of our acts, providing a remedy, and beginning to restore the trust of our customers, dealerships, employees, the regulators, and the American public. We will rebuild the reputation of a company that more than two million people worldwide, including dealers and suppliers, rely upon for their livelihoods..
****
I have my doubts that the Sept 3rd. meeting between VW & EPA/CARB was 'voluntary'. I think that the leak by the US VW official on
Aug 21st pushed the regulators to demand the 9/3 meeting with US VW officials. And that is when the US regulators pushed & shoved
VW of America into 'coming clean'. However, this was done in a vacuum...without a real legal strategy of how to survive what they had
just admitted to. And furthermore, what US VW officials admitted to was apparently NOT coordinated with VW headquarters at Wolfsburg
or VW's Supervisory Board. The latter claims they were unaware of the process. Remember this part of the NYT story:
'Directors Say Volkswagen Delayed Informing Them of Trickery' Article from the NYT dated Oct 23rd:
"At least three members of Volkswagen’s board said they were left in the dark about the company’s emissions cheating for two weeks after top executives admitted the deception to American environmental officials...If Mr. Winterkorn did not know about the communication with the American regulators, he was unaware of a fundamental threat to the company. If he was aware, he withheld significant information from members of his 20-member supervisory board...It was a 'grave mistake' for Volkswagen executives to withhold information as long as they did, Mr. Weil said on Friday in a statement. He noted that American regulators had raised red flags about Volkswagen emissions in 2014. 'Talks took place for a full year before Volkswagen admitted the deception,' Mr. Weil said. 'This confession should clearly have occurred much earlier'...Some outsiders expressed surprise that Mr. Winterkorn, known for his attention to detail, would have been unaware that E.P.A. officials had been asking for more than a year why Volkswagen diesel cars had far lower emissions in laboratory tests than on the road. 'I find it very improbable,' said Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, a professor at the University of Duisburg-Essen who follows Volkswagen closely. 'He was always the one who wanted to know everything'.
***
So who pushed VW US officials on 9/3 to admit to wrongdoing before VW top management at headquarters in Germany or the
supervisory board of the VW Group had a chance to discuss the issue & how they were going to handle it? This is still the puzzling
thing for me. And one possibility for the sudden rush to a 'mea culpa' by Volkswagen of America officials without full approval &
guidance from Wolfsburg is that the EPA & CARB had incriminating information from a source inside VW of America which was the
'smoking gun'. And VW of America officials were caught off guard on that Sept 3rd meeting & misjudged by openly admitting to
a wrong doing which was not yet fully vetted by either their full legal team or by VW's top management at Wolfsburg. That is what
I am referring to when I assigned to the sole VW official at the Aug. 21st meeting with totally irresponsible & unprofessional behavior
for a corporate official, regardless of his nationality. For all we know, this US VW official was an American or an individual of Caribbean
"ethnicities"...& not necessarily a German. Food for thought.
From another thread. I think it's worth re-posting here.
**********
Originally Posted by hfm
hfm: Please see my remarks in 'red':
Eduardo, you've given considerable thought to the VW official and the September 3, 2015 meeting. Whether or not the official was a whistleblower and, whether or not the executives participating in the September 3, 2015 meeting had legal counsel or, consulted with or coordinated with VW supervisory board all deals with how this debacle was handled internally.
Yes, I have. And yes we are talking how this was handled initially by VW re: their admission of wrong doing in that early time frame - Aug. 21st & Sept. 3rd.
It is materially and factually inconsistant that the VW supervisory board didn't know what was going on by September 3, 2015 yet US VW executives some how did know and were able to admit the existence of a default device when questioned by the EPA. You can be reasonably sure anything US VW executives knew, VW supervisory knew as well.
Not necessarily. VW of America CEO Michael Horn admitted under oath that he learn of the 'defeat devices' only days before the Sept 3rd Meeting.
We don't yet know what Michael Horn communicated back to his boss after he found out, which I presumed at that time was CEO Martin Winterkorn. And we don't know what Winterkorn reported in that time frame to the Supervisory Board, which did not have a meeting going at in that particular time frame (last days of August/First days of September).
Otherwise, the only factually sensible reason for that isolated knowledge is that US VW knew because the source of the defeat software originated here and that does not make sense that the left hand controlled the right hand, head and rest of the body.
No chance of that. The defeat software was incorporated into a device that was apparently manufactured by Robert Bosch at the request, and under the specifications established, by the VW Group. It was found on the so-far identified diesel engines in all VW markets - the US and ROW. Without a doubt the defeat software originated in the Fatherland and not in Herndon, VA, Auburn Hills, MI or Chattanooga, TN!
What matters factually took place before. That someone decided to install and implement the software to defeat testing and was able to do this across multiple platforms, vehicles and brands well before 2015. Once that happened the questions become who knew, why wasn't the problem fixed at a supervisory level, how could management at the CEO level at each brand not know, how could the supervisory board not know and, once they did know, why wasn't a defensive strategy developed the moment they did know?
We need to understand the VW Group structure:
The problem here likely rests with the supervisory board who probably knew of the issue in 2014 and failed to advise executives, shareholders and, develop a defensive strategy in advance of public disclosure.
Not necessarily. VW claims that this whole operation was the work of some rogue engineers that didn't have the approval or consent of upper management. If upper management didn't know, you can't blame the Supervisory Board for also not knowing!
If they truly did not know, then, how did this one VW US official know and how did the executives from VW US know of the existence of the default device so as to be able to admit to its existence to the EPA?
We still don't know the identity of this VW official at the Pacific Grove CA event on Aug 21st. Although both EPA & CARP officials were present, this was not their conference. It was a University of California at Davis event, so quite an informal gathering. I am assuming that individual is/was an employee of VW of America. But it could also have been a representative of VW AG, e.g. an engineer, who attended this meeting from Germany. Either way, this person was privy to the information which Michael Horn, CEO of VW of America claims he didn't know as of that date - Aug. 21st, 2015. So perhaps the information re: defeat devices was known only to an elite circle of engineers who didn't share that information with the business 'suits' within their own organization. What ultimately drove this individual to reveal this incriminating information first to the EPA & CARB before he informed his own management, whether in Wolfsburg or Herndon, is what remains a puzzle to me!
Remember that what I am trying to do here is make sense of what VW is telling us...not whether I think even now VW is being dishonest with what they are telling us, the regulators...and even the US Congress under oath! So please play along...even if you find their stories simply implausible!
Dan (thinks finger pointing is far removed from solution finding)
Eduardo (thinks this is not finger pointing but investigating reporting in the spirit of Bob Woodward & Carl Bernstein...and hopefully not Dan Rather )
***
Robert Bosch Role
Here is another interesting perspective to the story that I think is worth
focusing our attention, because it truly reveals the depth of the problem
faced not only by VW, but by other significant players in the automotive
industry of Germany:
Originally Posted by JimV8
Bosche engineers build the software for VW but instructed that it was not for production purposes.
Originally Posted by Nicole
There were rumors in the German press that supplier BOSCH had warned VW that they were using illegal software, but this was brushed off by whoever was the contact there.
Originally Posted by Little Green
I keep hearing this and have even seen the press releases. If Bosch did in fact make the original software and said don't use this for production, did they produce 11 million "test" ECM's or did vw alter each of the supplied parts? Bosch can't sit there and say "well yeah we made 11M of them but it was for testing". This doesn't lie just at VW's feet. No question Bosch will get seriously sucked into this. If it does it will have tremendous affects on the aftermarket business. We stock over 6K different part numbers from Bosch in our inventory. They supply to every major auto manufacturer in the world.
My question is why are they attacking only those diesels within the VW group and not all diesels using the "ad blu" system?
It's just a matter of time before the EPA & CARB goes after the Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)
AdBlue urea injection systems used by other European auto makers like MB. This is shaping up like
a serious economic war between Germany & the United States in a crucial industry that is vital for
maintaining jobs & money flowing in that European country. So put on your seat belts, Jack, because
we're going on a rough ride in the next few years...and the German auto industry will not be the same
after it's all over! And I tell what also will never be the same - German public opinion towards the US!
Presently the latter is positive towards us. But that will change radically as they come to regards what
the EPA & CARB is doing (even if VW & others cheated a bit) as a targeted injustice aimed squarely at
crippling, not reforming, their industrial 'crown jewels' - the once-all-mighty German auto industry. Just
mark my words!
"Its been revealed by an EU insider that the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) is
asking for a “conformity factor” of 1.7, whereby cars would be given Euro 6 status for emitting 0.136g/km
of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from 2020.
Policymakers are planning a zero-tolerance approach on the 0.080g/km Euro 6 limit from 2020, but have
agreed a two-phase implementation with softer regulations in place for 2017 to 2020.
However, the insider said the ACEA wants to push this further and is asking for compliance for cars emitting
2.75 times the Euro 6 limits during the first three-year period. That’s equal to 0.220g/km – a figure that
wouldn’t even meet Euro 5 legislation.
Our source also revealed the ACEA feels the battles currently facing VW are a US conspiracy
against European diesels. Its demands came at a behind-closed-doors meeting on 1 October ahead
of the Real-World Driving Emissions (RDE) tests, which will be officially introduced on 1 January 2016 –
although only for monitoring purposes in year one. From 2017, RDE will be used for Euro 6 compliance
tests on new type approval vehicles and in 2018, all new cars sold in the EU must pass RDE tests."
It makes littles sense to me that off-topic forum is not accessible without membership but,
that is what it is.
I started the thread at this 991 gt3 forum the mysterious resignation of Ferdinand Piëch as
chairman of the VW Group's Supervisory Board back on 5/07/2015.
The moderators chose to moved it to 'Off Topic', which was unfortunate. Not so much because it
requires a paid membership to Rennlist - you should be doing that in any case, as sccchiii pointed
out above, to insure this forum stays profitable & available to us in the internet! No, it's unfortunate
because the 'Off-Topic' forum is so seldom visited by our 'regular' contributors & readers. From every
perspective that I can think of, 'Dieselgate' & Ferdinand Piëch's role in it (big or small), is anything
but 'Off-Topic'! Just a cursory glance at today's business & political headlines in the 'press' will amply
demonstrate its relevancy. In fact, the long term survival of Porsche as we know it today, and the
reason for this forum to exist at all, is in some jeopardy. And I think that as this story develops,
more Rennlisters will come to understand the serious nature of the problem!
I have asked respectfully asked the moderators of this website (John Petridis & Bob Rouleau) to
restore my Piëch thread back to this forum where it will have more visibility & create an opportunity
for enlightened discussion among our members. That hasn't happened yet, but I hope the request is
reconsidered by them.
In the meantime, I try to keep the information on this subject current on this other thread which is
a 'sticky' at the top of the forum:
Thank you for posting the WSJ link with the video. Questions that weren't asked were -
from whom did Mr. Horn learn of the existence of the defeat devices? If it was it from
VAG, when did they know of the existence? And, how did VAG learn of their existence?
Rogue engineers. Elite circle of engineers. A group of engineers did this for what reason
if they weren't expressly or impliedly told to do so by their superiors?
Correct. So far we have not seen enough investigative reporting on this very topic by either
the 'main street' or the 'automotive' press! So I am trying to correct that!
****
Originally Posted by hfm
The thing you posted about the VW official at the Pacific Grove event is interesting in that his
knowledge of the existence of the defeat device existed prior to what Mr. Horn indicates he
knew. Assuming Mr. Horn is telling the truth, the question remains, was this official telling
EPA this information before telling VAG or, did VAG already know but not disclose? I agree
and, you're correct, this is a key fact and question needed to assess culpability.
I am going to write more about this Pacific Grove conference in the coming days. I have done
some further research & discovered that it took place in 'Asilomar', which is just a few miles
north of my Carmel Point home on the Pacific Coast here in Monterey County.
So that is 'ground zero' of the devastating revelations that started the 'implosion' of the VW
Group on that fateful day - August 21st of 2015! From that moment forward, which led
directly to the Sept 3rd VW/EPA/CARB meeting & the EPA's public accusations on Sept 18th,
the die was cast. From that date forward, you can document the gradual destruction of the
VW Group as we know it, starting with the 'evaporation' of several billion euros of the VW’s
market capitalization in a few short weeks! When the final chapter of 'Dieselgate' is written,
and the cost of ruined lives & fortunes tallied, history will record what the spark that started
the destructive 'wrecking ball' was let loose at this location, albeit if the 'deceit' was conceived
& set into motion years before in far-away Germany.
And it will always be remembered as a sad day for the fortune of VW, its customers, its workers,
its world-wide dealer network, it's long list of suppliers and of course, its share-holders. Especially
hard hit will be the wealth & influence of the Porsche/Piëch family...although I think Ferdinand
Piëch wisely bailed out back in April & possibly monetized all of his VW shares. Remember, never
bet against Ferdinand Piëch. That is a lesson I have learned from following this fascinating person,
the most gifted of all descendants of Ferdinand Porsche, since I was first exposed to Porsche in the
early 1970's! He is not finished yet!
So what was started at 'Asilomar', a place I can walk to from my home, is still reverberating in
Wolfsburg, Zuffenhausen, Ingolstadt & Zell-am-See today...and it will continue for much longer
than most of you anticipate!
For the sake of making it easy on our readers, let me post here the contents of Bob Lutz 'opinion'
from his regular column on Road & Track:
"Ferdinand Piëch, the immensely powerful former chief of Volkswagen's supervisory board,
is more than likely the root cause of the VW diesel-emissions scandal. Whether he specifically
asked for, tacitly approved, or was even aware of the company's use of software to deliberately
fudge EPA emissions testing is immaterial.
I sat next to him at an industry dinner in the Nineties, just after the fourth-generation Golf had
debuted at the Frankfurt show. I told him, "I'd like to congratulate you on the new Golf. First of
all, it's a nice-looking car, but God, those body fits!"
"Yeah. I wish we could get close to that at Chrysler."
"I'll give you the recipe. I called all the body engineers, stamping people, manufacturing, and
executives into my conference room. And I said, 'I am tired of all these lousy body fits. You
have six weeks to achieve world-class body fits. I have all your names. If we do not have
good body fits in six weeks, I will replace all of you. Thank you for your time today.' "
"That's how you did it?"
"Yes. And it worked."
That's the way he ran everything. It's what I call a reign of terror and a culture where performance
was driven by fear and intimidation. He just says, "You will sell diesels in the U.S., and you will not
fail. Do it, or I'll find somebody who will." The guy was absolutely brutal.
I imagine that at some point, the VW engineering team said to Piëch, "We don't know how to pass
the emissions test with the hardware we have." The reply, in that culture, most likely was, "You will
pass! I demand it! Or I'll find someone who can do it!"
In these situations, your choice was immediate dismissal or find a way to pass the test and pay the
consequences later. Human nature being what it is—if it's lose your job today for sure or lose your
job maybe a year from now, we always pick maybe a year from now.
That management style gets short-term results, but it's a culture that's extremely dangerous. Look
at dictators. Dictators invariably wind up destroying the very countries they thought their omniscience
and omnipotence would make great. It's fast and it's efficient, but at huge risk.
This diesel fiasco is immeasurable in terms of damages—so much worse than Toyota acceleration,
Ford Firestone tires, or GM ignition switches. In all those cases, tragically, people died, but it wasn't
premeditated. You settle with the victims' families, pay the fine, put in the new parts, and for $1.5
billion, it can all be contained. But this Volkswagen mess is like the disaster that keeps on giving.
To make the cars legal in the U.S., VW will need to program them with the software that passes the
test, in which case, performance is down and fuel consumption is up, and every VW TDI owner is part
of a class-action suit against Volkswagen. To retrofit a urea system is basically a nonstarter, as it would
require far too much change.
There is no easy fix. But you can probably rely on the German government to do what is necessary to
pull Volkswagen out of this crisis. In terms of marketing cars in the U.S., Volkswagen will need a radically
new array of products that are much closer to mainstream American tastes than what it has. The whole
Clean Diesel campaign, as the foundation of the VW brand, cannot be resurrected. It's history.
*
Bob Lutz has been The Man at several car companies, so your problems are cake. Bring 'em on.
*
MY comment: We really don't know enough of Piëch role in 'Dieselgate' to make this kind of accusation.
This is a cheap shot by someone that should know better than be this reckless with his words. And he
should be reprimanded for making this dramatic conjecture from rather flimsy evidence - an innocuous
dinner conversation with Ferdinand Piëch back when the latter was in active management at the VW
Group - way before he became the Chairman of the Supervisory Board and quite a distance from what
the diesel engineers were up to in recent years! I hope this libelous 'piece of cake' smacks him in the face
at some future point in time!
*
This is not the first attempt to tar the image of Ferdinand Piëch and assign blame directly to him
in the press in recent weeks!
*
And it is going to get worse. The liberal press thinks of the 'Conservative Right' as modern day '*****'.
But in their bias, they forget that they latter's actual name was 'Nationalist Socialists' & they considered
themselves back then progressive Socialists. Unfortunately for Volkswagen, 'Dieselgate' affords the left
a fat, juicy target - a story of pollution, corporate cheating & of majority shareholders that indeed had
a past history with the '*****'. And the 'drive-by' will find it impossible to resist making hay of these
'facts' because they combine all the elements the Left love to demonize today - 'bad actors' polluting
our environment, corporate malfeasance, the undeserving 1% super-rich and a connection to the only
evil person they acknowledge has ever existed - Adolph Hitler. And what do you know? He was Austrian
too! Picture perfect for a docudrama on MSNBC hosted by John Harwood!
Dan (concedes the subject is interesting enough to discuss)
Saludos,
Eduardo (thank you for that concession and may your mind explore other interesting aspects of this
extraordinary story which is unraveling right before our eyes as we live through its early history!)
Piech is a very clever and calculated businessman and has my utmost respect even if he isn't someone I feel an affinity for. The thing is we all thought WW could do no wrong until the music stopped and the parcel was on his lap only half a dozen years ago. This who subject is fascinating and I thank Eduardo for persevering in keeping this debate alive, his analysis and informative posts carefully weighted points of view etc. I've learnt a lot here. Looks like there is much water to still pass under the bridge. I do hope VWAG and PAG can survive this without depriving their customers if the great product and innovation we have come to expect from them. European economics are fragile as it stands and it remains to be seen if this becomes "the straw that breaks the camels back", but let's hope this gets tidied up before it gets out of control because I suspect the contagion effects could well affect the global economy as well as the USA....
Eduardo, do you think Porsche SE has enough capital and shares to buy all
the remaining shares available to attempt another take over or a buy out to
free themselves from the VW umbrella?
No, I don't think they, as a family holding, have enough capital left to do that.
And if they did, it would not be prudent to throw 'good money after bad'.
And it's all rather pointless if the Lower State of Saxony, even with a less
potent version of the VW Law in place, can have veto power, especially
when allied to the labor representatives (votes) on the VW's Board.
As an interesting side note, VW reported US$ 1.83 Billion (1.67 B Euros)
in the third quarter of it's fiscal year accounting for the 6.7 Billion Euros
it initially set aside in September for the costs of the scandal. But that
loss was somewhat mitigated by this little reported fact:
'The cash reserves have been buttressed by
3 billion euros from the sale of shares in Suzuki.'
It turns out that VW owned almost 20% shares of Suzuki and was
forced to sell it recently (nothing to do with the current VW scandal).
So the shares of VW that Porsche SE bought directly from Suzuki recently,
which allowed them to raise the family's ownership to 52.3% of ordinary
shares of VW (from 50.7 %) and represents 32.4% of subscribed capital
in VW, was a totally separate affair negotiated way before the VW scandal
broke, although it was executed at about the same time by coincidence.
These shares became available when VW was compelled to sell its 19.9
% share of Suzuki and the latter was forced to sell its 1.5% shares of
the VW Group. At the time the Porsche SE purchase of Suzuki shares
was announced, it was spun as the family's increased commitment to
the VW Group. From this revelation, it looks to me like a pre-arranged
family purchase that perhaps was too late to undo after the scandal
story broke out.
And I predict this will be Porsche SE's last investment in VW Group shares
for a very long time. There will be losses at VW for the foreseeable future,
the stock has lost over 30% of its value and there is little chance of dividend
income. And when you throw the fuzzy ramifications of the VW Law into the
mix, it makes little sense to me that Porsche SE would want to invest further
in this business venture.
Originally Posted by FLAT6KING
BTW the news is under reporting the potential fine as 7 billion which is
nothing compared to the penalty per vehicle cost that was reported earlier
(looking for that figure).
The US $7+ billion figure in the press is the initial reserve the VW Group
set aside (actually 6.7 billion Euros) to cover the estimated cost of the 'hit'
under accounting rules. On Nov 3rd VW set aside a further 2 billion Euros
(US $2.2B) because 'overstated claims about the carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions
and, thus, fuel efficiency of 800,000 cars, including, it seems, some with petrol
engines.'
If the US EPA decides to fine VW for every diesel the agency declared, and VW
admitted, had the cheater device in the US, that penalty alone would cost them
in excess of US $18 billion. Estimates of the total cost to VW for the scandal range
from a low of US$30 billion to US$87Billion. The figures are simply staggering!
Eduardo, it wouldn't be the first time I misunderstood something, and I may
have again in this case, but it wasn't that I thought you were demonizing the
Porsche or Piech families. I know that you weren't doing that, and I appreciate
the care with which you write. It did seem, though, that you were complaining
how the "liberal press" was demonizing VW's actions while at the same time
you yourself were caricaturing and demonizing "liberals". That just struck me
as ironic. My apologies if I have misinterpreted those comments.
Now I see what you were trying to say. I was not trying to caricature &
demonizing 'liberals' per se. I was explaining how the Left will spin the
story in their publication venues - e.g. BBC & Slate - to include the tie-in
between the Porsche/Piëch family and the Third Reich. Less biased writers
will refrain from going to that extreme, although they will continue to
inform on the 'mistakes' that were made by executives & engineers at
the VW Group.
Originally Posted by Mike in CA
In my humble opinion, what VW did doesn't require a right or left, liberal
or conservative spin.
You are entitled to your opinion. Unfortunately, almost everybody else that
will write about this scandal on the press or internet will impart on it either
facts, feelings or opinions. These will be weaved into the storyline and used
to influence how the writer hopes its readers will react to what he/she has
communicated. That applies equally to me here at Rennlist, as well as to
the writers of the BBC & Slate.
Originally Posted by Mike in CA
It was simply wrong, based on the facts as we know them so far, and for
that reason they deserve the scrutiny they are now getting as a consequence
of, if nothing else, their gross hubris and stupidity. Personally, I have no wish
to see the brand punished out of existence. Let them pay a reasonable price
for their "sins", which by the way pale in comparison to any number of other
corporate and political scandals for which little or no punishment was handed
out, and then begin to move forward from this episode.
Yes, I remember hearing something similar taught to me by the nuns at
St. Margaret Mary in Irondequoit New York circa 1961. But I was trying
to make the point, which I think Mike (W8MM) captures brilliantly in one
sentence I have copied below, that there is more here than meets the eye:
I am trying to go beyond the surface of the base 'scandal' reports & delve
into those deeper 'murky' waters. To do that, I need for the readers to
consider the possibilities that there might be other agendas here at play.
So please bear with me as we explore this subject from various angles &
try to understand what might be really the other sub-plot in all of this.
And only then can our readers decide if this scandal can be 'contained' by
penitence & fines...or if the 'sins' are so abhorrent & egregious (as defined
by others - mostly in the political 'Left') that it requires VW to be sacrificed
& destroyed to the teach a valuable lesson to other would-be corporate
polluter-villains the world over. And the answer to that is...we don't yet
know how this is going to go down!
Piech is a very clever and calculated businessman and has my utmost respect even if he isn't someone I feel an affinity for. The thing is we all thought WW could do no wrong until the music stopped and the parcel was on his lap only half a dozen years ago. This who subject is fascinating and I thank Eduardo for persevering in keeping this debate alive, his analysis and informative posts carefully weighted points of view etc. I've learnt a lot here. Looks like there is much water to still pass under the bridge. I do hope VWAG and PAG can survive this without depriving their customers if the great product and innovation we have come to expect from them. European economics are fragile as it stands and it remains to be seen if this becomes "the straw that breaks the camels back", but let's hope this gets tidied up before it gets out of control because I suspect the contagion effects could well affect the global economy as well as the USA....
Thank you Mark for your comments. There are not many like you here
at Rennlist that seem interested to delve deeper into this subject matter.
But even if my audience is just a few of you, I aim to continue to try to
make sense of it all to the best of my ability, hopefully with the input of
thoughtful people like you on threads like this one!
This was a post I wrote on the subject at another thread,
which might be of interest to some here!
***
Originally Posted by hfm
If he (Ferdinand Piëch) sold VW shares at the peak before (the)
over $23B VW market capitalization loss, I'd question if he did
this knowing what was about to take place.
Get in line, counselor! I have been asking that question since Oct 18th!
Originally Posted by hfm
As for Mr. Piëch, I simply don't know enough about him or what he
may or may not have done to form an opinion yet. The lawyer in me
questions the timing of his departure. Granted, he probably wasn't
expecting an ouster. But, it was rather convenient if he cashed out
when he did, wasn't it? Dan (holds Lutz in very low regard as you
may have guessed but, doesn't give Mr. Piëch a pass either)
Piëch not only expected his departure, he engineered it all with an
almost too perfect sense of timing!
Originally Posted by hfm
If that decision was based upon knowledge of the existence of defeat
device as opposed to wisdom, it begs the question, was this an insider
trade?
hfm: We don't yet what Ferdinand Piëch knew as fact back in April of
2015 when he resigned from the Supervisory Board where he served
as Chairman. But it strikes me suspicious that he left so unexpectedly
back then...which is the reason I started my original thread in May titled:
'More Information on the Resignation of Ferdinand Piëch from
the VW Supervisory Board!'
Not for one minute did I ever think he was outfoxed in April by CEO
Martin Winterkorn...or even his cousin Wolfgang Porsche. And it begs
the question as to what he was suspicious of that made him decide to
distance himself from the VW Group at that time.
Let me remind everyone of something that I have previously posted
here on Rennlist (Post #43 on page 3 of this thread) which I find...
interesting! It could also hold the key to the mystery of Ferdinand
Piëch's desire to leave his post back in April:
"One quote from Piëch during his last days has intrigued me from
the moment I read it in the fascinating account reported in 'Spiegel
Online' back in the Spring, which I posted on my original thread back
in May:
"Do you want my resignation? If you would like that,
then I will resign today. But I have to say, if that's the
case I will sell my shares." Ferdinand Piëch as quoted in
article found below:
Today, in retrospect, we might be looking at another brilliant move
from the most intellectually gifted of all the descendants of Ferdinand
Porsche Sr. If Piëch after his resignation in April was able to sell most,
if not all, of his personal VW shares ahead of the 'Dieselgate' scandal
when the stock price was at its yearly 'high', he might be the wealthiest
citizen of Germany, far richer than his cousin Wolfgang that took sides
against him & remained on the VW Supervisory Board. And that perhaps
why he was able to drive 'triumphantly' into Wolfsburg recently. Moral
of the story, don't ever bet against Ferdinand Piëch
As to insider trading...that is a thorny question to which we don't yet
have answers. But one thing is for sure, before he left his post, Piëch
told his Board he would sell his stock after he his departure. And if he
executed on that threat, that surely was a wise financial move on his
part! And sell is something he probably would NOT have been able to
do if he had remained on the VW Group's Supervisory Board! And if
he sold before Sept 18th, it might be hard to prove he had inside
knowledge of what a group of 'rogue' engineers were up to (if we
are to believe the VW company line).
But let me turn things around & ask you to imagine a different scenario
from what Cars Technica, Lutz and Slate have suggested, which paints
Ferdinand Piëch as the villain of the story. We heard initially that the
reason Piëch told Der Spiegel as to why he had lost confidence in
Winterkorn was related to the later handling of VW's problems in the
American market. For example, see this report dated 4/23/2015:
It was never truly made exactly clear as to what problems Piëch
was specifically referring to, but it opens up this possibility:
What if Ferdinand Piëch was upset because Martin Winterkorn
had not sufficiently informed the Supervisory Board of the issues
the EPA had been raising with VW since early in 2014? What if
Piëch was insisting that Winterkorn & VW take a pro-active role
in correcting whatever the technical issues were, and if necessary
do a total recall & stop sale of diesel engine cars, and solve the
'problem' before it could become a crisis of huge proportion for
VW, with also dire consequences for the fortunes of the Porsche/
Piëch family itself? What if his warnings & concerns were ignored
by Winterkorn and/or the other members of the Supervisory Board?*
Who is the villain now?
We will know soon enough what he knew & when. This is
now a full-blown criminal investigation in the US, Europe &
other parts of the world. We will have as evidence all the
minutes & discussions that the Supervisory Board had before,
& after, Ferdinand Piëch (with seemingly impeccable timing)
removed himself from the chairmanship of the body.
Keep tune to this story...it will get more interesting with
time, not less!
***
As to what Ferdinand Piëch did with his shares of VW & Porsche
Automobil Holding SE after his resignation in April, we really don't
yet know. But here is what was reported at the time back in May:
"The fact that Piëch has stepped down in no way means that he
will no longer have influence. Indeed, his threat to sell his shares
is already creating turbulence. But his shares are worth less than
many speculate. Piëch currently holds 13 percent of the common
shares in Porsche Automobile Holding. The mass-circulation daily
Bild recently estimated he could raise €21 billion by selling them,
but the real figure is only about €1.8 billion.
That relatively low price may not keep Piëch from selling. He's
more likely to be bothered by having to first offer his shares to
the rest of the family -- to whom he would reportedly be required
to sell them at a 25 percent discount compared to market prices.
That would require him to not hold a grudge, which, of course,
is something he's not very good at."
*This is not so far-fetched. I am still curious as to why
a veteran high official of Vokswagen, Winfried Vahland,
would resign his post just two weeks after his appointment
as head of the combined North American operation of
VW! And one possibility is that he didn't agree with the
manner in which the present Supervisory Board and
Management Board wanted to deal with the 'problem'.
PTS & 'Porsche Exclusive' are separate...with different views on marketing themselves
A repost from the PTS Reference thread...but one I think worth saving here
since it touches on the reasons why 'Porsche Exclusive' agreed to host a
luncheon for me at Zuffenhausen on July 17th 2015 & helps explain their
interest in promoting their unique options! However, 'Porsche Exclusive'
does not control PTS at Porsche. So we need to understand the unusual
relationship between these two departments which are normally thought
of as one!
*********** Let me respond using comments in 'RED':
Originally Posted by Less than3mph
Eduardo, I just noticed your post in the GT4 forum.
I have in my possession a later July 2015 version with just a few updates...
but PAG has decided that they want this list kept 'Confidential' from now on.
I am trying to get the OK to publish it here on Rennlist, but don't have the
clearance yet!
IMO this is a pretty big deal, no? Why would Porsche want to withhold this information on PTS approved
colours from its customers? PTS has grown immensely popular precisely because we are now able to identify
colours that appeal to us while bypassing the usual months long approval process. And this is absolutely
critical for buyers of GT cars, where interest in PTS has probably peaked the fastest, and where the window
of opportunity is fleeting.
Yes, it's unfortunate. And could signified a decidedly turn in direction for PTS at Porsche. It's a warning
aimed squarely at what we are trying to do here at Rennlist with an information campaigned that started
back in July of 2012. Here is what I set to do and announced it on my first post of each thread:
"This thread's purpose is to shed some light into the sometimes opaque world of 'Porsche Exclusive'.
And to disseminate some of information I have gained from past Porsche ordering experiences and
current research into custom ordering a 991...I hope this thread lifts the veil on some of the custom
ordering process at Porsche and helps some of you achieve the perfect 991 spec! I am not affiliated
with PAG, PCNA or any dealer, so all of this is being done is the spirit of 'Liebe Zu Ihm'."
And these threads have grown in interest beyond belief. For example, the 'custom ordering' thread
on the 991 forum has now over 279K views:
*
The one at the 981 forum has over 89K views:
*
This one, which is not even a 'Sticky', has over 110K views!
* And what these figures don't show are the nearly 1700 private messages and countless emails I have
received & answered regarding PTS & 'Porsche Exclusive' options via Rennlist!
So it's hard to make the case that we have not moved the needle on PTS! We have made a big impact.
There has been a decisive movement/shift in orders for Paint to Sample since we started explaining to
the Porsche enthusiast community how Paint to Sample works and emphasize/highlight the beautiful,
out-of-the-ordinary colors available to them via this option on their custom Porsches.
Any idea on the motivation behind this policy? When was this change conveyed to you?
It was conveyed to me via verbal & emails reports I got back from Porsche customers in Europe this
last summer. It was confirmed when I received the last approved PTS list dated July 2015 with the
large print 'For Internal Use Only - Confidential' in early September.
I'm a little surprised that you haven't reported more widely on this turn of events and also that you're
not actively circumventing efforts to suppress this information. Or maybe I just missed that whole
conversation.
No, I have not drawn attention to it in any big way because I am trying to convince PAG, privately via
my direct contacts at PCNA & PAG, to reverse that policy which categorized the PTS list as 'Confidential'.
That decision, in my opinion, is counter-productive. The interest in PTS is real & substantial. PAG can
quantify the numbers of customers that have asked for PTS in MY2012, MY2013, MY2014, MY2015 and
MY2016...and they can see the handwriting on the wall! It's up, up & up. And they also know they have
denied a good portion of these requests due to logistical & physical limitations in the number of PTS they
are prepared to do each year. So no only they are missing on the opportunity to cash in on PTS to its full
potential, but PAG's inability to meet PTS demand is also creating frustration & resentment among their
most enthusiastic & ready-to-spend money affluent customers! That, in the long run, is not a recipe for
success. And I am quietly trying them to reverse course.
Please let us know what you think this means for the future of how PTS will operate.
Not good if they stubbornly stick to their guns and keep the approved PTS list confidential from now on.
Because the PTS window is currently closed for what is left of MY2016 (or so it appears unless they allow
it on these recent last-minute gt4 & RS allocations), I thought I had a bit of time to fight the battle in
private with PCNA & PAG. But the PTS window on MY2017 will open shortly. And if we follow PAG's
directives as they stand today, we will not be privy to future PTS approved list information unless folks
in the know violate PAG's wishes. Given the role I have chosen to take as a conduit for information on
PTS & 'Porsche Exclusive', that has indeed put me on a difficult spot.
Thanks again for all your help with PTS, and I'm hoping you can break through to PAG on behalf of
those of us who really appreciate the incredible option that PTS is. And here's hoping you are able
to do what you've always attempted to do--that is, keep the lines of communication between us
and them open and transparent.
Thank you Daniel for the well wishes. I'll need them. I have communicated to the appropriate executives
at Porsche in the US and Germany my desire for more, not less, transparency of information on how PTS
works at PAG. And I think those feelings mirror the views of Rennlisters I know here. Hopefully, Porsche
will let me know soon how PAG wants to handle PTS going forward. It will be either with optimism & a
commitment to devote more resources to try to satisfy their client's basic PTS demands. Or they will try
to go backwards, to how PTS was run previously in the 996 & 997 era, with opaqueness, smoke, mirrors
& veils !
Let's hope they choose the former...but ultimately it's their company & they will run it as they see fit.
Steven has valid points which I would like to address. And I am also adding
some additional bits of information & my personal opinion to the mix so that
others can make up their own minds on this topic. My comments will be in
'RED' or 'BLUE'.
Originally Posted by Steven_H
I suspect that one reason for Porsche's reluctance to be more 'transparent' is
their attitude toward PTS. In the recent past - 3 years ago - PTS cars were very
limited, there was no 'approved' list, and ordering a car PTS was difficult and
oblique. In this way, Porsche was able to maintain the 'exclusive' aspect of program.
That may have been the results but not the intent. I'll explain further below.
***
I think Porsche Exclusives began in 1986 in Germany
Correct. 'Porsche Exclusive', as we know it today, was founded in 1986.
***
and I believe it was Sasha who convinced Porsche to open an
Exclusives department in the US, with initially only him in California
and later Melissa on the East Coast.
Sascha Glaeser, who recently left his employment at Porsche, indeed
staffed the initial dedicated 'Porsche Exclusive' effort in the US. He
devised the business case for ‘International Customer Consultation’
& got it approved. But he actually arrived in the US to do that job in
February 2011...so fairly recently. Not by coincidence, I started posting
about what one could do via 'Porsche Exclusive' not long after that in
September of 2011:
Most dealers were relatively unaware of what was possible. My sense
it was based on the Special Wishes (Sonderwunsche) department at
the factory which began in the early 1950s and pretty much served the
Porsche family, Near Eastern collectors and friends of the factory.
This is very true. Porsche has been doing 'Special Wishes' for customers
from just about the very start of the company. I once had a 1960 356
Roadster with a special kill switch from factory that was not on the option's
list. And you might remember that I often talk about Porsche's MY1970 color
offerings, which set a record at 9 regular colors & 21 'special colors' for a
choice of 30. But even with this array of choices, Porsche still allowed
1.3% of production in MY1970 to be paint to sample orders! So of the
over 15,000 911s & 914-6 built, nearly 200 cars were PTS in 1970!
But the official 'Sonderwunsche Programm', as the department came to
be known, did not officially start until 1978.
And in 1986, it's name was changed to 'Porsche Exclusive' and it celebrated
it's 25th Anniversary in 2011!
***
These rare cars were VERY special with modified bodywork, outrageous
interiors, etc. Costs of the modifications often exceeded $100k. My instinct
is that Porsche is not particularly interested in significantly expanding their
Exclusives department - rather it is something of a 'halo' operation.
Yes, one could get that idea from the many obstacles they seem to place in
the path of ordering these special & rare options. But that is probably not
how PAG perceives it. From Feb 2011 to May 2014, the period in which
Sascha Glaeser headed 'Porsche Exclusive' for PCNA, he reported that
vehicle option revenue increased by $3.75M and his department's target
goals were exceeded 25% for each of 2011 & 2012...and over 50% in
2013! So Porsche thinks of 'Porsche Exclusive' as a profit center and
is counting on its continued growth to reach its profitability goals here
& all other ROW markets!
***
My other instinct is that Porsche loses money on every PTS car - the
costs of testing, changing all the paint systems for a (very) few cars,
not to mention the all too time consuming process of ordering a Porsche
Exclusives car. Many people spend inordinate time NOT ordering a car.
Having ordered two PTS cars in unique colors and with lengthy Exclusives
options, I am enormously respectful and appreciative of what is a hugely
time consuming process for Porsche. And after reading the Forbes article,
I was reminded of the inordinate difficulty of convincing vendors to provide
unique versions of parts for only a few cars.
I don't really know for certain, but I have been speculating for years now
that PTS is a relative bargain and its cost to us doesn't reflect the potential
headaches to PAG, in terms of logistical planning & paint warranty issues
that could develop down the road. Here are excerpts from a post I wrote
back in 8/19/2014 at the 991 gt3 forum:
"
As an aside, if you think 'White' is hard to match on the plastic bumper of a gt3, imagine PAG's Quality
Control engineers or the bean counters in their Warranty Department enormous concern (technical &
financial) for matching PTS colors on those bumpers and avoiding this type of warranty issues on those
special custom-paint cars!!!! If you look it from their perspective, they would cancel PTS and CXX special
options in a nano-second. That PTS is still alive at Porsche is a miracle...regardless the $5500 expense.
The engineers and accountants would rather not take the risk of the warranty claims. And if you look at
the expense of feasibility study for color, PTS paint ordering & handling process, the additional logistical
issues involved in coordinating all the painted parts that goes into a vehicle (e.g. a gt3) and the accounting
reserves in case of warranty claims, PAG might be able to make the case they break even, or lose money,
on each PTS order they sell! What they gain by PTS is not profit...but the ability to satisfy a client with the
ultimate personal customization of his/her vehicle, something which is not often offered by the competition.
That is the key benefit of PTS & 'Porsche Exclusive'. Remember all of this when you hear folks complaining
about the 'high cost' of PTS at Porsche...it's a bargain in my opinion."
Finally, 'Exclusives' becomes an oxymoron when it becomes common.
Maybe. But Porsche's stated goal is to grow 'Porsche Exclusive' & not
keep it that 'exclusive'. The new manager of PCNA's 'Porsche Exclusive'
in the United States, Barbara Boeckenhoff, has an even bigger budget
for 2016...and has hired two additional staff members for its Beverly
Hills 'showroom' in addition to retaining Melissa Witek in Atlanta.
And 'Porsche Exclusive' is expanding in other ROW markets, such as
the Middle East with folks there like Torsten Horn! So, whether it comes
as a surprise to some or not, 'Porsche Exclusive' is growing! And I
don't see it becoming once again 'oblique' or 'veiled' anytime soon!
It's not like Porsche is not heavily advertising 'Porsche Exclusive' or
anything like that. In fact, it's just the opposite:
How many are aware that Mercedes offers Paint to Sample, for example?
Well, I have an even more important question to ask. How many
here know that 'Paint to Sample' is not part of 'Porsche Exclusive'?
It is not. So the 800 pound gorilla in the room present in this conversation
is 'Paint to Sample' which we always associate and mixed in with 'Porsche
Exclusive'. PTS is not run, organized, managed or controlled by 'Porsche
Exclusive'. It's is under separate management. And that is why I am
asking Porsche to let me have access to the people that run it and get
their perspective as to why they run it in the manner they currently do.
And also how they are planning to meet increased demand in the future.
***
Mercedes, BMW, Audi, to name just a few, do indeed offer its own PTS
program to their customers. But demand for it is just a small fraction
of the requests for this option at Porsche. And the reasons for that
smaller demand are many:
1) The size/shape of their vehicles often do not lend themselves to
unusual and/or bright colors!
2) Few auto manufactures have the iconic color period that Porsche
experienced in the late 1960's/early 1970's which define a sport car era!
3) Few manufacturers have enthusiast websites like Rennlist with
up-to-the-minute information on PTS (e.g. this thread for example)
like we provide that is helping drive the interest up on this rare option!
Now, two months later, we are getting news of further investigations into the role Robert Bosch might have played in the affair. Read this Reuters 'Exclusive'
report dated Nov. 19th:
"The mismanagement of the crisis will be a classic case study in business schools..."
This is what I posted back in Nov 2nd on how VW was mishandling their 'Dieselgate' case:
Originally Posted by Z356
In the annals of modern business history, this 'VW Scandal' episode will
be one taught at all MBA schools as a case study for the next one hundred
years. And the lessors learned from this case at the Wharton & Harvard
Business School is not how well VW handled this affair, but rather what
NOT TO DO if you or your company ever finds itself in the same tough
bind as VW did over 'Dieselgate'!
Hackenberg, head of Audi engineering left today too.. That guy was a legend in VAG.. I guess no one there is too big to go.. But still, what a brain-drain. (His name is just an unfortunate coincidence in this case...)
Location: 40 min South from the 'Ring, 45 min East of Spa
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Originally Posted by Z356
Dear Rennlisters:
6) After a quiet time in Traben-Trarbach on the Mosel River where my wife & I enjoyed a delightful 2013 Ürziger Würzgarten Riesling Auslese (Dr. Hermann) while on a Mosel River cruise to the old town of Bernkastel:
...we then made a stop at the mecca in Germany for all of the world's auto enthusiasts: the famous Nürburgring!
***
Well crap, had I been following this months ago I would have seen that you were visiting only 25 mins from where I live! The Mosel/Eifel makes for some of the best driving, hands down! Great wine too.
Well crap, had I been following this months ago I would have seen
that you were visiting only 25 mins from where I live! The Mosel/Eifel
makes for some of the best driving, hands down! Great wine too.
Next time I'll pm you when I am in your area to meet for some wine
or beer!
11-04-2015, 01:04 AM
Was it a whistleblower?
)
My apologies if I have misinterpreted those comments.
