carpundit

I was speaking about the future. I apologize for the confusion.

I meant that the expected future bottoming-out is $10K.
As for current prices, I paid about $28K for my no-stories '99, so I think your range is high, but of course it depends on options, miles, etc.

As for engines, you can fix an old Carrera engine. The 3.4's tend to get replaced at great cost. Trannies, too. If my understanding is wrong about that, I'd be pleased -and willing- to learn it.

JimB

Your assumptions are wrong. You cannot fix an old boxer engine for less than you can fix or replace a 3.4. The top end rebuild on a 964 or 993 is more than replacing the whole 996 engine with a factory rebuild. And, as Billy mentioned, shops are already doing rebuilds of both the tranny and the engines.

BTW, $10k for a 996 is highly unlikely. Ever.

joes c4 cab

This "Swap out" the major component idea has burned me the last time with Porsche. As much as I like both of the ones I have, I have bought my last one.

+1 for me. Sad but true.

Einstein

outside of porsche I can't think of any other descent sports car (within the price range of the porsche).

what is going to happen if porsche burns out?

perfectlap

What can you buy *at all* for $10K?
Its even rare to see a 7 year old Honda S2000 listed for less than $14K on Ebay Motors these days.
$10K just doesn't go very far in sports car world these days.

palladio

Good points by all. It will be interesting to see where values go on these cars. All the previous 911 variants have tended to hold value at a certain point, whereas cars like the 928 and 944 have little to no residual value in the general consumer market, other than for a few enthusiasts that are still running them.

It's a complex question, but my guess is that 911's have held their value for two main reasons. Firstly they were fairly limited in production compared to many other brands/models (lower supply + consistent demand = continued value). Secondly, the design has become iconic and was not changed too drastically over the years. Most non-enthusiasts would be hard pressed to identify many differences between a 1975 911 and a 1997 one. So a guy buying even an older model still got a lot of the "image" of a newer one. It's a bit like Rolex watches such as the submariner. A 20 year old Rolex in good condition will sell for only slightly less than a new one, because no one other than the owner can tell the difference (this is of course a limited analogy from a functional standpoint, because watches last a lot longer than cars and are far cheaper to maintain, but from a styling standpoint I think it is valid).

Cost of maintenance is of course the other big driver in value, and I have no idea whether the 996 will cost less or more to maintain than an air-cooled 911 over the long term. One problem I've found with the newer cars is their reliance on proprietary computers and electrical parts that can't be easily replicated in the aftermarket. I have a 1966 Vette that's still running strong after 40 years, and there's very little that can go wrong with it that can't be fixed with inexpensive and readily available aftermarket parts. I also own a 2000 Range Rover that is a nightmare in terms of repair costs. My speedometer stopped working and the only fix seems to be buying a $1400 computer bus (so I'm never going to fix it). The Range Rover was a $65K car new in 2000, and mine looks almost as mint today as when it left the showroom floor. Due to repair costs, and the fact that the styling of newer models have eclipsed it in terms of desirability, the value of my Range Rover is now somewhere between $4,000 to 10,000. I've spent $5K on repairs in just the past year. At some point, you're better off just junking the car and moving on.

So to end my rant here, my guess is 996's will only hold their value if the market continues to view them as a "classic" design, and if aftermarket parts are available at a reasonable cost (i.e. things like tranny rebuild kits mentioned on this thread). Otherwise, they will likely go the way of the 944 and 928 - to the junk heap.

palladio

As per my previous post, $10K will buy you my 2000 Range Rover with 86,000 miles (sticker $65K new). The car doesn't have a single ding, the paint looks like new, all the tires/belts/hoses are new, and the interior leather doesn't even show wear. Still, no one wants one because the inevitable cost of routine parts and maintenance on this car don't justify its existence for most people.

JimB

Boy can I relate. Purchased price in 2000, $70k, sale price in 2005, $10k.

evansaero

WOW That really sums it up

The Rover is an awesome 4x4 and has the image of a "go anywhere" kind of vehicle. Yet its maint costs are through the roof. The avg buyer could not and will not buy a vehicle that will sink them

This is where I see the Mass production model p-car going.


Is it just me or is there something special about the metal that builds these engines and other components Even the aftermarket companies charge an arm and a leg.

Could a company be built on the idea of cheap, durable aftermarket parts for these European machines like Mopar?

DDun911

I just bought a 01 996 to turn into my track car for exactly this reason. My current SC needs major dollars spent on it to approach the performance of the off the shelf 996 then I feel like I am driving a time bomb. Motor goes on the SC I am looking North of 12K (as much or more than the car is worth) were as the 996 $ 7,500 I have a new engine.

swmrdrn

Last year when I was looking for a beater 4x4 for work I looked at many 97-00 Land Rovers and talked to several owners. The cost to keep them on the road made our 996's look cheap. In the end I purchased a 1994 Toyota Land Cruiser with 135,000 miles on the clock for about the same price as a low miles Land Rover. The deciding factor was the cost to keep it maintained. Of course my Cruiser is not a nice as the Rover but it is indestructible.

Keithr726

I've been looking at a 99 cab with only 33,000 miles and looks incredible. Dealer wants $30K for it.

03Targa

It's interesting, Porshe engines all have their little quirks but for some reason the 996 gets the lion's share of abuse. Honestly, I think the engine for the 996's might hurt their longterm resale value but not because I think they are particularily less reliable than older models. I think they will be a problem becasue the internet and the aircooled crowd have combined to create an atmosphere of panic about a car that is really quite excellent. I'm at a loss to explain why people want to push this 'all 996's have faulty engines' theory but they do. It really only hurts the value of all Porsche's but there is a very vocal air cooled minority that will continue to push this agenda.

evansaero

I never said the engine was faulty

Maybe you should go back and reread the thread from the beginning

We could apply this theory to the 997 in 10 years

cupcar86

I think you guys need to put it in perspective (I'm a diehard aircooled fan who is looking for a 996 because the values are just unbeatable.) Has there ever been a 911 generation not plagued by some rash of engine problems? How about the SC with the exploding airbox? How about the 3.2 Carreras with the random failures of head studs (I can tell you all about that). Or the 964's with the dual mass flywheel failures and twin distributor static buildup detonations. And don't forget the 993's which had plenty of engine problems of their own? Every time a problem came up the previous generation fans were on their soapbox saying how this was the end of the P-cars as we knew them and how the "new" 911's would be on the junkheap in less than ten years. And guess what? In time the market judged them wrong - look at 964 prices that stabilized and actually increased over the last few years - this is a car that purists used to call the "orphan" 911. Only time will tell on the 996's, it is too soon yet and I think there is no other used car on the market that offers so much value for the money. (And yes, the engine replacement costs are sensational compared to "old school" 911's). Just my two cents but I'm an air cooled guy voting with my $$$$$$$$.