snarf

The results of the poll into puncture rates
https://rennlist.com/forums/997-forum/268722-puncture-rate.html.

The poll into puncture rates has not yet closed but interest has died to the point where I considered it time for analysis. But first an apology to all those who took the time to vote on this poll, the analysis is a little flawed because I’ve had to modify the first and last mileage bands of the category definitions – these ought to have been better constructed – but nevertheless I think the results do provide an indicative assessment of the economics of tyre insurance. The utility value that comes with the peace of mind from having tyre insurance is of course a personal matter and no attempt has been made to include this.

The table and graph below shows the results of a 10,000 iteration Monte Carlo simulation, and from this based on your annual mileage you can decide whether tyre insurance is a good bet for you.

Hope this all makes sense and you find it helpful.

Allan

robbonds

so since i paid $299 for 5yrs and will probably have 25k miles after just over 2 yrs, and a new tire will cost more than $299 - it made sense for me to buy the insurance - not to mention the champion wheels are also covered by the policy

boolala

The way it works out for your situation is: 12,500 mi/yr. You paid $300/5 = $60/yr for insurance. Reading off the graph (or doing a linear extrapolation of the numbers) the mean number of punctures per year at 12,500 mi would be 0.7. Say the cost of a new tire is $400 with tax and balance/installation. So 0.7*400 = $280 which is much more (per year) than what the insurance costs you ($60).

In fact assuming $400 replacement cost your break even point for tire replacement cost would occur at an annual puncture rate of 60/400 = 0.15 = 15% or about 3500 miles.

humbug

ok, ok...this tire insurance thing is confusing me. First off, has any one filed a claim with a tire insurance company and they paid out for a new tire secondary to a puncture or was it deemed fixable? Or is there soooo much small print that the tire has to literally come apart like an orange before you see any coverage.

robbonds

porsche dealers dont fix tires anymore - no choice but to replace or go to a tire dealer..

porsche dealerships are going to get A LOT of bad will if they sell these policies and then never let a buyer make a claim - seems like a lot of risk for little reward

black/terra

not only is the tire covered but also the wheel!

Throw that factor in and I'd have to say based on the cost of Porsche tire and/or wheels it's got to be worth it.

Looks like if you file but one claim in 5 years its cheaper than the premium.

Wish we could graph the likelyhood of filing a claim in 5 years

snarf

Probability of making a claim is a function of miles driven - if this is likely to be greater than 25,000 you could extend the graph to get an approximation of the likely number of punctures.

humbug

But again, has anyone actually filed a claim!

robbonds

relax - i can promise you it will happen before too long

snarf

Poll now closed - no more votes so results stand.